The Washington Commanders enjoyed an unexpected, magical and hugely enjoyable 2024 season. With the 2025 season a week away it’s time to finally put that glorious chapter of the teams history to bed and focus on the future. The 2025 season comes with a fresh slate for everyone. What you did last year counts for nothing. Everything from here on out has to be earned, and no 2 NFL seasons are ever the same. There’s generally around a 40-50% turnover of playoff teams year on year, so will the Commanders sustain the momentum of a season ago, or slip back into the pack?
Lets take a look at 5 reasons why the Commanders will push on from 2024, and, just to be balanced, 5 reasons why they may find the success of 12 months ago difficult to repeat.
5 reasons why the 2025 Commanders will succeed
1. Jayden Daniels
Erm, ok Captain Obvious that’s hardly a revelation! It’s low hanging fruit for sure, but the continued growth and development of Daniels is critical to the success of the team. Elite QB’s have the ability to be the rising tide that lifts all boats, and as a rookie there’s no doubt that JD5 squeezed every last drop of what looked on paper like a very average group of skill players.
With an improved offensive line and the addition of Deebo Samuel, the offense at least on paper looks stronger. All the pre season QB rankings have Daniels as just outside that elite top 4 or 5 QB’s and if he can take the step to consolidate and even improve on last season, wins should follow. A step back to the pack, even if it’s only a small regression, may see the win total fall accordingly.
2. Deebo Samuel returns to something close to his peak.
Deebo Samuel was brought in to provide Jayden Daniels with a proven weapon who can take a 5 yard screen, a quick slant, or a jet sweep to the house from anywhere on the field. Critics have pointed out that his production and physical condition have declined over the past couple of seasons which is correct. What is also true is that Deebo is in the final year of his deal and will be looking to earn one last big contract. Training camp reports have been largely positive both in terms of developing his connection with Daniels and his physical conditioning. Although not a traditional number 2 receiver, a healthy and productive Deebo can take some of the attention from Terry McLaurin and give JD5 another dangerous weapon.
3. Improved run defense
Even with all the success of 2024, the run defense was a constant problem, ranking 29th in yards per game.Week after week teams ran the ball with success as the Commanders struggled in all aspects of run defense, but particularly with setting the edge, allowing opponents way too many chunk plays.
It was clear in the off season that the brains trust of Dan Quinn and Adam Peters wanted to address the issue to ensure that the Commanders are not such a soft touch against the run. Most fans saw the pass rush as the area of greatest need, but the Commanders themselves clearly looked to bring in bigger, space eating defensive lineman like Deatrich Wise, Eddie Goldman and Javon Kinlaw who are all well north of 280 lbs, with the expectation that they will contribute to a sturdier and more disciplined run stopping unit. If the run defense improves and puts teams in more passing situations then that will help the……
4. Improved secondary
The Commanders secondary has been massively overhauled since the beginning of the Dan Quinn era, and the current unit looks to have the potential to be a real area of strength.
However, there are a few ‘ifs’ in play here. Clearly Marshon Lattimore was never fully healthy last year and there has to be some doubt as to whether an injury prone 29 year old corner will ever get back to his best. Training camp reports have been positive with a healthy Lattimore appearing to be fast and explosive which would be a huge boost and justify the investment of fairly significant draft capital.
Rookie Trey Amos has made an immediate impression, potentially allowing Mikey Sainristil to return to his favoured position as the slot/nickel and giving the starting 3 a solid look.
Safety Quan Martin has been earning rave reviews from coaches and observers alike, with his continuing maturity and growth potentially catapulting him into the upper echelons of the position.
New addition Will Harris remains a wait and see but the starters and depth pieces give this unit an extremely robust look.
5. Offensive line upgrades
After decades in the QB wilderness the Commanders have finally unearthed their franchise passer, and Adam Peters wasted no time in ensuring that their prized asset is looked after. The strategy was clear and obvious….protect Jayden.
The trade for Laremy Tunsil was a huge statement of intent and the drafting of Josh Conerly Jr doubled down on the mission to build a wall in front of their game changer. The ripple effect of those moves allows Brandon Coleman to move inside, and when Sam Cosmi returns the line will have excellent depth pieces in Andrew Wylie and Nick Allegretti. Attrition on the offensive line is nearly inevitable during the course of the season and having depth and flexibility could be a huge plus. The O line looks as good as it has for many years.
So there is plenty of reason for optimism as we head into 2025, but just for balance there are a few reasons why it might be harder to duplicate the success of 2024.
5 reasons why the Commanders won’t be as successful in 2025
1. One score game regression
The Commanders were 8-4 in one score games in the regular season (including the 8 point defeats to Philly and Dallas, so more like 8-2), a hugely significant stat. An even crazier stat is that 6 of those wins were decided with the final play from scrimmage. It’s going to be hard to sustain that level of late game success. There are many reasons why the late game success occurred that fans will point to including great team togetherness, excellent coaching and the clutch gene that appears to be embedded in Jayden Daniels. However, even accounting for that it’s going to be tough to replicate that kind of wild statistic.Regression by even a couple of close finishes will bring the Commanders back to the pack. The answer of course is to make sure that the games aren’t as close!
2. 3rd and 4th down conversions
It’s hard to underestimate how good the Commanders were at converting 3rd and particularly 4th downs last season. A 45.2% 3rd down success rate was good for 6th in the NFL which is an excellent finish but it was on 4th down that the Commanders were not only good but historically good. They converted 20 out of 23 opportunities on 4th down for an 87% success rate which was not only the best in the league but by far the best in modern NFL history. Only the 2006 Patriots (80%) and the 2018 Saints (81%) have broken 80% but they were still a good way behind the Commanders 87%.
That’s the good news. Now for the reality. That figure is surely unsustainable. Teams will be even more prepared for the Commanders in 2025 and some level of regression is surely inevitable. That said, one of the reasons for that success on both 3rd and particularly 4th down is the cheat code wearing number 5 and he’s still there. However even taking that into account it’s hard to rely on replicating those numbers from 2024.
3. Tougher Schedule
One of the down sides to success is a tougher schedule. The Commanders will be playing a second place schedule in 2025 with the double whammy of inter conference games against the seemingly resurgent AFC West and intra conference games against the undoubtedly strong NFC North. The schedule is 8th hardest in 2025, compared to the 19th hardest in 2024. The caveat is that strength of schedule does not always translate to how the season actually transpires as some teams will under achieve and others overachieve. That said, if you look at the Commanders schedule it’s a pretty tough looking slate, between the aforementioned inter and intra conference slates, the always tough divisional games and dates with the Falcons, Seahawks and Dolphins.
4. Injuries
The 2024 Commanders were relatively blessed when it came to significant injuries to key players. According to the ‘adjusted games lost’ metric, Washington were the 5th healthiest team in the NFL last season. 6 out of the 8 healthiest teams made the playoffs and none of the 4 Conference Championship teams were in the bottom half of the league health wise.
There are layers to this type of analysis however, particularly in terms of who is injured. For example, Washington could again be extremely healthy overall but if it loses one or two key players the impact is multiplied. As a general guide though good health generally equates to a better season and the Commanders were extremely healthy in 2024. That doesn’t mean regression is guaranteed, as having a good medical team is a big factor, as is load management and rest for players, particularly veterans, which leads me nicely to……
5. Veterans falling off a cliff
As has been widely reported, the 2025 Washington Commanders have the oldest roster in the NFL, with an average age of 28.1 years. This is not only the oldest average age in 2025, but the oldest for more than a decade.
Von Miller is 36, Bobby Wagner 35, Zach Ertz 34, Laremy Tunsil 31…. The list goes on. Of course, Jayden Daniels is 24 and his brilliance could be enough to override any concerns about an old roster, as could careful management by Dan Quinn who is known for carefully looking after his vets.
That said, the more older players you have on the roster the greater the risk of injury or, as importantly, regression in performance, is a real consideration. It’s hard to know when the cliff will come for some of these older players, but Father Time is undefeated and the Commanders are potentially playing a risky game with the number of veteran players on the roster.
So, there we have it. The factors that will determine the success of the 2025 season for the Commanders are nuanced and multi-faceted. Time will tell which ones will have the biggest bearing on the next chapter of Washington Commanders football.
