As I look at the 2025 version of the Washington Commanders and try to decide what kind of season they will have, I find myself feeling more pessimistic than I would like.
Last year was amazing, Jayden Daniels and Kliff Kingsbury took the league by storm, and for a long while, literally no one could stop them early on as they scored on 16 straight possessions in September.
Now what?
The roster has again seen massive turnover and another influx of one year stopgap veterans. While we knew this was going to happen for a few years, it still means a lot of new faces learning a new system and meshing with new teammates.
We have faith in the coaches to again do what they did last year and we also have faith that our front office now has the competence to acquire players that will best fit what the coaches are doing.
The Positives:
Jayden Daniels has a year under his belt. His understanding of the offense and his role as a leader have grown. He has gotten stronger. His preparation is second to none, and his ability to study a defense using his VR setup is revolutionary.
I don’t worry at all about the “sophomore slump” because of this preparation. I don’t care if defenses have a year of tape to study tendencies. Most of what they are studying is how he reacted to knowing what they were doing.
- The receiving corps should be better. Terry is paid, happy, and as long as he works through the early grind of missing camp, should again be the team’s leading receiver. Deebo Samuel is a dream for Kliff Kingsbury. Jaylen Lane adds speed and shows a lot of promise. Noah Brown can be reliable target, and his ability to draw PI flags downfield should not be understated. They are meaningful plays, as good as a catch.
- The running game should be better. I admit it, I am a fan of Chris Rodriguez. I think he runs hard, angry. Every movement is fast and violent. He hits the gap quick and he lays the lick more often than not. We saw in preseason that he can break into the open quickly. Granted, the OL opened massive gaps, and he hit them.
Bill Crosskey-Merritt has a lot of talk coming into the season, we think we see what we like, and so do the coaches. I think he will come along slowly, as I think Rodriguez is going to make it hard for coaches to take him off the field. McNichols has shown why he stays here, and Ekeler can be every bit the weapon Deebo can be.
- The offensive line should be better. Laramy Tunsil is a stud, the kind of rock-solid anchor a winner needs. And across the line, it appears everything has gotten better. Our depth is good, former starters, versatility and strength.
- The defense should be better. The problem areas were addressed aggressively. We are bigger up front. Stronger to handle the running backs they’ll face this year. The only man in the secondary that started last year’s opener is Quan Martin, and by all accounts he is coming into his own. Noah I is back, Mike Sainristil is coming off a very strong rookie season, and everyone else is new. Marshon Lattimore has All Pro talent. Will Harris brings veteran presence and excellent coverage ability. Trey Amos gives the kind of real optimism for a rookie that we had to fake for a guy like Emannuel Forbes.
So why don’t I feel great about it?
Regression is almost inevitable after a season like 2024. Regardless of what I said above about opposing defenses having a yr of Jayden on tape (and Kliff, too), there ae certain laws that apply.
John Tayman’s First Law of Football: Offense innovates, defense adapts. Defense ALWAYS adapts. Whenever a spectacular new wrinkle has been tossed into the game by an offense it typically takes NFL defenses a year to catch up to it. (Perfect case study for we Commanders’ fans is RGIII. He and the Read-Option took the league by storm. He had a spectacular season, Colin Kaepernick went to the Super Bowl running it. And a year later the read-option as a primary part of the offense was stuffed. Russell Wilson with Pete Carroll adapted to the changes, Kaepernick and RG3 could not.)
And so with the First Law in mind, it stands to reason that defenses will maybe not have ‘figured out’ Jayden or Kliff but may have devised ways to make it a bit more difficult on Jayden. (But, back up to the positives, I don’t think Jayden is a one-trick pony. I think his ability to react to a defense goes way beyond raw athletic skill.)
Injuries are one of the heaviest determining factors of a team’s success or failure. A good team can be destroyed by them, and it is almost pure luck whether it happens.
I say “almost” because our training staff has done quite well in preparing the Commanders players to play. Comparing to the training staffs we had previously and the constant injuries we suffered, I think it is safe to say they DO play a big part in whether or not that bad luck happens.
Last year the Commanders stayed relatively healthy. And it is with great hope we do so again, because in some areas our depth is quite thin. Injuries are a chance happening, but injuries over the course of a football season are guaranteed. Once again we have a late bye. Keep your fingers crossed we can stay healthy.
Are the defensive changes enough? Maybe. We have gotten bigger up front, and we have eschewed the traditional pass rusher roles a bit to concentrate more on stopping the run. Last year they were weak. This year we face Josh Jacobs, Ashton Jeanty, Bijan Robinson, D’Andre Swift, Jamhyr Gibbs/ David Montgomery, De’Van Achane, Aaron Jones, and Saquon Barkley twice. It’s a long season.
Can Matt Gay kick? So far the answer is “Fuck no he can’t, Why the hell did we sign him?” We better see that come around because one of the other things that made us so good last year was the high conversion rate on 4th down. It would be nice to have a kicker that can .. you know… KICK.
Points are always at a premium, and we are locked in to a kicker who has not given any reason yet for trust.
So, with all that said, I do think we will take a small step back this year and finish 10-7. We will make the playoffs as a Wild Card. From there it’s anyone’s ball game.
